Meaning of the Saletime Forecast CLI
(CONFIDENCE LEVEL INDEX)

Any week we have an auction, we prepare a custom Sale Time Forecast for that specific place and time. Our predictions tend to be more precise than the multi-county zone forecasts local radio and TV stations use. But no forecast model is perfect, and our atmosphere is subject to so many variables that it's impossible to measure every factor that affects weather. A person can't always know what it is that he doesn't know.

On a scale of 1 to 10, the Confidence Level Index tells you how much faith I have in the saletime prediction. A CLI of 10 is rare, and indicates a certainty approaching that of debt or taxes on all major elements of the forecast...usually temperature, precipitation, and wind. A CLI of 9 is very good, usually indicating only one forecast element is dubious (ie, temperature variance > ±2° possible, or precip timing could be a bit off). Indices of 8, 7, or 6 suggest additional forecast elenebts are less certain.

A CLI of 5 means you could do just as well with a coin toss. A lower index is very rare, but has happened, meaning most or maybe everything the forecast says will be wrong. However, even that little knowledge can help by warning us to prepare for anything.

The CLI and the forecast may change from day to day--usually becoming more definite with time, but not always. For that reason, I sometimes post my own thoughts below.

- John Davis

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   Should be another beautiful autumn day!